000
FXUS63 KEAX 162330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2022

Key Message

* Quiet weather for entirety of this upcoming week.

* Warming Monday into Tuesday, followed by crashing cold air Wednesday
  through Friday

Shortwave ridging is moving through the area between the main upper
trough, which is churning through the mid-south region and an upstream
shorwave trough which is currently diving through the upper midwest.
Low stratus and fog have very slowly eroded as the day has progressed.
While there maybe a brief period of clearing skies, the upstream mid
level trough will come through and restore some cloud cover for the
overnight period tonight. The focus of this lift tonight will be mainly
across northeastern and central Missouri, but with a pretty dry sub-
cloud layer any clouds will be confined to the mid levels and any
precipitation that forms will have a hard time overcoming the dry air
in the lowest 10kft. Further west where the lift will glance by, the
cloud cover could be on the lower side, which may allow for some
radiational cooling tonight and some fog formation for the western most
zones, including the KC Metro.

Monday and Tuesday will see a warming trend across the area, but Monday
will only see marginal warming, given the decent snowpack in place. An
inverted trough will move through on Monday afternoon which should
eventually get southwest flow at the surface going, but likely not
until later in the day. Areas of eastern Kansas and western Missouri
where snow pack is pretty flimsy the warmer air should erode that snow
away from west to east. This may also help with temperature recovery in
the afternoon. Whatever snow survives Monday will likely not survive
Tuesday, as stout southwesterly winds at the surface pushes much warmer
air into the area. Looking at highs in the 40s over the denser snow
pack of northeast Missouri, with areas of E KS and W MO perhaps seeing
some 50s. This will likely spell the end of the snowpack outside of
areas that received perhaps 4-5+".

The rest of the week will not be nearly as pleasant, as by Tuesday
night a cold front will push hard through the area, bringing some
arctic air that will drive our high temperatures back into the teens
and 20s for Wed-Fri. At the current time there does not appear to be
much in the way of notable weather makers on the horizon, so the rest
of the week should remain pretty quiet, outside of the temperature
swing mid week. Some recovery will be possible by next weekend, but
current progs show temperatures at or below normal area-wide next
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 445 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2022

Fairly quiet TAF period expected with light southerly winds
gradually turning more to the northwest tonight. There is a chance
for potential patchy fog development again overnight, however
confidence is pretty low that this would impact any of the
terminals at this time. Opted to keep any more significant
visibility impacts out of this round of TAFs, but this will be
monitored in the 06z TAFs as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...HB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion