000
FXUS63 KEAX 031734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2021

Key Messages:

- Dry weather expected for most areas this weekend.

- Temperatures return to more seasonal levels next week.

Upper-level flow across the CONUS is nearly zonal early Friday
morning, with the exception of trough moving off the East Coast. A
weak/subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move across the area
within this fast quasi-zonal flow and help push a cold front
southward through the day today. Despite the front sliding south
through the day, temperatures still look well above normal, with
highs in the low to mid 60s, and a close to normal diurnal
temperature trend.

For Saturday, cooler and drier high pressure will build into the
Great Lakes area. Since this is really just giving us a glancing
hit of cooler/drier air, temperatures for Saturday still look
slightly above normal. Highs should top out in the low to mid 50s
for most areas but far northern and northeastern MO may be stuck
in the upper 40s.

For Sunday into Monday, that area of high pressure quickly shifts to
the Mid-Atlantic, with a stronger upper trough moving out of British
Columbia and Alberta into the Northern Plains. This pattern will
allow for southerly flow to return from the Gulf Coast into the
Upper Midwest, ahead of the upper trough and developing surface low.
This quick surge of warmer and more moist air may lead to a few
showers or sprinkles across the southeastern portions of the
forecast area Sunday. It will also allow temperatures to climb back
into the 60s across the southern half of the forecast area, ahead of
a strong cold front. That front will clear the southern extent of
the forecast area by Sunday evening with a much cooler and drier air
mass moving into the area as high pressure moves overhead.
Temperatures on Monday will likely be 20 to 25 degrees cooler than
Sunday and 30+ degrees cooler than yesterday.

For Tuesday through the end of the week, temperatures remain cooler
than what we`ve seen recently with some moderation possible by the
end of the work week. The overall chance for any precipitation
remains low but there is a small chance in the middle of next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2021

Front will be moving through early in the prevailing TAF period
with winds veering from southwesterly/westerly to northwesterly
behind the front. Winds will also pick up behind the front with a
few gusts of 15 to 18 kts. Near-term models hinting at stratus
deck moving into the terminals Saturday morning with MVFR cigs
possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PietrychaP

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion